Many powers,including the BushAdministration andSaudi Arabia, arepushing their willonto Iraq.
Why Should Bush Single Out Iran?By Cliff Montgomery – Feb. 16th, 2007The issue of the moment may be the sudden increase in White House rhetoric about Iran and its supposed influence on Iraq. But as an eye-opening Jan. 12th Congressional Research Service (CRS) report on the Iraq region reveals, Iran’s influence may be great, but it’s hardly the only Gulf state which may be getting involved in the Iraq mess.We’ve sampled some of the main points of the CRS report below:“Principal current concerns [which are]…relevant to members of the 110th Congress…include alleged Iranian political, financial, and military support for various Iraqi Shiite political parties and militia groups…”Iraq and other regional security problems, such as the Israeli-Palestinian conflict, the enduring threat of transnational terrorism, Iran’s nuclear program, and the ongoing political crisis in Lebanon, are becoming increasingly intertwined. Some observers believe that, in order for the United States and its allies to reach a sustainable reconciliation and find a lasting solution in Iraq, related regional crises also must be addressed.”Others contend that lasting resolutions to these problems can only be secured according to their own time-lines and that efforts to link them to the stabilization of Iraq are unlikely to produce desirable results.”The Iraq Study Group and other have argued that if Iraqis are unable to resolve their differences and rein in armed groups, then Iraq could continue to descend into violence, and Iraq’s neighbors might intervene to defend their perceived national interests.Political Stability“The removal of the Saddam Hussein regime upset the tenuous political and economic balance that had existed in the Persian Gulf region since the end of the 1991 Gulf War. In political and military terms, the regime’s fall and the subsequent dismantling of Iraq’s armed forces removed a potential military threat to the Arab Gulf states but also eliminatedthe region’s principal strategic counterweight to Iran.”Subsequent elections have installed a Shiite-dominated government, some of whose members are friendly to Iranian interests.Sectarian-Ethnic Violence“The hardening of sectarian and ethnic identities in Iraq has created significant anxiety among Iraq’s neighbors, many of whom also have religiously and ethnically diverse populations.”Sunni Arab governments and religious figures have characterized the empowerment of Iraq’s Shiite Arabs and close relationships between the Iranian government and some Iraqi and non-Iraqi Shiite political parties and armed groups as evidence of an emerging and potentially hostile ‘Shiite crescent’. Sunni Arabs in Saudi Arabia, Jordan, and Egypt also have accused Iraqi Shiite militia groups and Shiite-dominated Iraqi security forces of targeting Sunni Arab civilians.”Similarly, Shiites outside of Iraq have expressed alarm about the targeting of Iraqi Shiite civilians by Sunni Arab-led insurgent and terrorist groups and the potential for Sunni Arab-led governments to intervene in Iraqi affairs to the detriment of Iraqi Shiites.”Turkish concerns about Kurdish separatism and the fate of Iraq’s ethnically-Turkish Turkoman minority group are well documented and drive Turkish policy regarding Iraq.”The post-Saddam strengthening of Iraqi Shiite political parties and the Shiite hawza, or religious establishment in An Najaf also have regional implications. Both phenomena contribute to concern in Saudi Arabia and Bahrain that indigenous Shiite Arabs may become more politically active or hostile, based on the example of Iraq’s empowered Shiite population or in response to future pronouncements from Iraq-based clerics.Continued Insurgency and Disorder?“From mid-2003 through early 2006, the foremost concerns of U.S. policymakers…the new Iraqi government…[and] regional policy makers…were the Sunni-led insurgency against coalition and Iraqi forces, the presence of foreign terrorist operatives in Iraq, and the growth of organized criminal activity such as kidnapping, extortion, and drug trafficking.”Iran and Turkey have engaged directly with Iraq’s Kurdish and Shiite Arab populations, respectively, in order to secure their interests and guard against some of the potentially negative implications of these problems. However, Iran’s intervention on behalf of Iraq’s Shiites may be contributing to the persistence of Sunni-led resistance activities, and Iraq’s Kurds remain wary of Turkish intentions.”In much of the Arab world, governments and citizens remain divided on the question of whether the U.S. military presence in Iraq is an ultimately stabilizing or aggravating factor. Most Arab governments fear a general failure of the new Iraqi government and the prospect of chaos that could leave Iraq’s minority Sunni Arab population vulnerable or create opportunities for terrorist elements to prosper.”Many Arab citizens oppose the continuing U.S. military presence in Iraq, and some view the current Iraqi government as an illegitimate outgrowth of U.S. occupation. Reconciling these differences of opinion is likely to remain difficult and could complicate efforts to secure the cooperation of Iraq’s Arab neighbors with new stabilization initiatives.”
