Afghan War Deteriorating, Declare U.S. Intelligence Experts

In this part of the world, wars are won by influencing the small affairs of daily life which are largely outside the big battles. Afghan War Deteriorating, Declare U.S. Intelligence ExpertsBy Cliff Montgomery – Dec. 3rd, 2007A Bush Administration evaluation of the “Real War” in Afghanistan states that many long-term goals set by the White House have not been realized in that country.The goals in Afghanistan of course include the hunt for Osama bin Laden, his terrorist group al-Qaeda, and their friends in the Taliban–the actual forces behind the terror attacks upon America on September 11th, 2001.American and NATO soldiers have won a number of large combat victories against a rebuilt Taliban force, say U.S. officials. But in this part of the world, wars are won by influencing the small affairs of daily life which are largely outside the big battles.The November evaluation released by the National Security Council comes on the heels of a detailed 2006 study on Afghanistan which set a number of ambitious goals for this year, that included an improved governance, economy and security for the war-torn nation.But the November assessment admitted that only “the kinetic piece” of the Afghan puzzle–separate engagements against Taliban fighters–has actually met administration goals; but it added that the other goals are far from being met, a top White House official recently told The Washington Post.This intelligence evaluation is said by the Post and others to be quite at odds with the assessment of Afghanistan held by many U.S. military officials–by that doesn’t keep the intel evaluation from being true.American intel analysts recognize the victories on the Afghan battlefield; but being intelligence experts, they know that no force can win a final victory in the Muslim world without ultimately winning hearts and minds. The analysts point to such increasing problems as the Taliban’s unchallenged takeover of Afghan territories, a return to massive opium poppy production and the increasing weakness of President Hamid Karzai’s government as indications that our fight in Afghanistan is deteriorating.Much of the argument between U.S. military and intelligence experts appears to hinge on our generals’ conception of warfare. While obviously brilliant and erudite men and women, their understanding of war is strictly of a Western, “Spartan” variety, which hinges on fairly defined battlefields, a clear enemy, and a primarily military objective.But while no one doubts that our Army easily bests any group of Islamist fighters when these are the characteristics of battle, the Afghan War is rarely about any of these things, retort intel analysts.”There is a key debate going on now between the military–especially commanders on the ground–and the intelligence community and some in the State Department about how we are doing,” one Afghanistan expert consulting with the National Security Council recently told the Post.One top intel official added that overall, “there doesn’t seem to be a lot of progress being made…I would think that from [the Taliban] standpoint, things are looking decent.”Like other intel officials, this one “was not authorized to discuss Afghanistan on the record,” stated the Post.Although foreigners–especially Pakistanis–are increasingly filling Taliban rolls, many intel experts say that the main source of recruits for the Islamist group still is Afghanistan itself. While Afghans have often joined Taliban ranks out of fear of reprisal, growing numbers of citizens appear to be joining out of frustration with their young democratic government.Top Bush Administration officials privately may well feel overwhelmed with Afghanistan. Of top concern is the weakening Afghan government itself. Numerous officials told the Post that they are most worried about the country’s domestic situation, where growing hordes of citizens are losing all belief in Karzai’s government.There are more than 25,000 American troops in Afghanistan, which constitutes the largest block of the 41,000-strong NATO force in that country. NATO officers proudly state that their brave soldiers have eliminated a greater number of Taliban forces–including group leaders–in 2007 than in any year since the beginning of hostilities there.It’s a mighty achievement, and NATO forces there have every right to be proud. But thinking that this constitutes the entire war there is “a very tactical outlook in a game that is strategic,” a former top U.S. commander in Afghanistan told the Post. The former commander apparently also told the paper that he agrees with a number of the intelligence community’s assessments about the Afghan War.While NATO forces continue to hold all major cities, they apparently lack the numbers to retain many of the vast rural expanses where three out of every four Afghans live. Areas hard-won in battle have been abandoned, only to be re-occupied by swelling Taliban numbers.Many local governments are now little better than puppet regimes of the Taliban and, presumably, of al-Qaeda.Like what you’re reading so far? Then why not order a full year (52 issues) of thee-newsletter for only $15? A major article covering an story not being told in the Corporate Press will be delivered to your email every Monday morning for a full year, for less than 30 cents an issue. Order Now!