By Cliff Montgomery – May 16th, 2010
Thai protesters are continuing their fervent protests in Bangkok, as troops loyal to Prime Minister AbhisitVejjajiva move in to quash the center of a growing rebellion.
Analysts and diplomats believe the military has grossly underestimated the tenacity of “red shirt” protesters, socalled because many have taken to wearing a red shirt as a symbol of solidarity.
For six weeks, thousands of protesters have barricaded themselves in a 1.2 square-mile district of Bangkok,filled with shopping malls and luxury hotels.
And the rebellion is spreading.
A state of emergency now exists for over a quarter of Thailand–on Sunday emergency decrees were issued infive additional provinces. Violence has broken out in the north, a red shirt stronghold which over half of thecountry’s 67 million people call home.
“The potential for a broader civil conflict is high,” National University of Singapore’s Federico Ferrara toldReuters today. Ferrara is a political science professor at the school.
“It is conceivable they might have an even worse problem on their hands after they have ‘cleansed’ Bangkok ofthe red shirts–especially if they have to massacre hundreds of people in the process,” Ferrara added.
At least 60 individuals have lost their lives and over 1,600 others have been wounded as a result of theprotests and government crackdowns which began in March, states official figures.
One Thai protest leader has said his country may be sliding to “civil war.”
The red shirts, who primarily are made up of Thailand’s poorer citizens, say that Prime Minister Abhisit came topower through undemocratic means. They accuse the Abhisit government of illegally tampering with thejudiciary and joining with the country’s royalist elite to bring down two elected governments, which were allied toousted premier Thaksin Shinawatra.
They are demanding that Abhisit step down, and are calling for new elections.
In a televised statement on Saturday, Abhisit declared the army would continue its operation to stop theprotests.
“We cannot leave the country in a situation where people who don’t obey the law are holding hostage thepeople of Bangkok, as well as the center of the country,” said Abhisit.
“We can’t allow a situation where people set up armed groups and overthrow the government because theydon’t agree with it,” he added.
The army hopes to cut off the entrenched rebel camp in Bangkok from receiving additional reinforcements andsupplies. It has even declared a number of ‘live fire’ zones in areas.
But these actions may not work. A BBC News reporter in Bangkok said the moves simply are pushingprotesters into different parts of the city.
“Despite claims by the Thai government that the situation was under control and its soldiers had only fired inself-defense,” states BBC News, “army snipers have been accused of targeting protesters.
“Footage from Bangkok on Saturday showed red-shirts dragging gunshot victims to safety,” adds BBC News.
The violence became even more manic on Thursday after a defecting general who champions the protesters’cause–Khattiya Sawasdipol, also known as Seh Daeng (Commander Red)–was shot by an unknown gunmanin an apparent assassination attempt. The general is alive, but in critical condition.
The growing rebellion drives many observers to question the current stability of Thailand, which holds thesecond-largest economy in South-East Asia.
“The current situation is almost full civil war,” said a red shirt leader, Jatuporn Prompan. “I am not sure how thisconflict will end.”
The protests initially convinced Abhisit to hold elections this November. But that possible deal fell through, asneither the prime minister nor the red shirts would acknowledge accountability for an April crackdown onprotests which turned deadly.
Dr. Thitinan Pongsudihrak, from Chulalongkorn University, believes that Prime Minister Abhisit’s days in officeare numbered.
“Abhisit’s departure is imminent,” Dr. Thitinan, who currently teaches at America’s Stanford University, toldBBC News.
“If he and his backers decide to go in for more crackdown, it could boomerang beyond imagination bygalvanizing the reds’ upheaval into an inchoate people’s revolution,” he added.
“Their resolve and rage, mobilization and organization, over the past year have been under-estimated by theBangkok-based establishment fronted by Mr. Abhisit,” said Thitinan.
“Their newfound traction has staying power. When reds’ numbers dwindle, reinforcements of both the ruraldisenchanted and the urban underclass show up. Time was on Abhisit’s side before the deadly clash, but nowtime is on the reds’ side.”
The red shirt movement is not a mere outburst of discontent, but rather the outcome of a politicalconsciousness which has been rising among Thailand’s poor for a generation, declared Thitinan.
