The 2008 Presidential Money Race, So Far

Which Democrats and Republicans might be left behind after the second quarter of fundraising?The 2008 Presidential Money Race, So FarBy Cliff Montgomery – May 29th, 2007In the last week of June, each presidential campaign must close its books on second-quarter fundraising and draw up its quarterly report for the Federal Election Commission (FEC) on fundraising, spending and cash-on-hand. While it won’t exactly be a “make-or-break moment” for any campaign, the second-quarter reports will reveal how well each candidate has appealed to its natural allies, as well as how each has made that all-important jump to expanding its emotional and financial voter appeal.In the first quarter, the Democratic and Republican presidential candidates for 2008 had raised more than $150 million after a mere three months of fundraising–the most massive start for a presidential money chase in American history.According to the Center for Responsive Politics, a non-partisan fundraising watchdog group, “by some predictions, the eventual nominees will need to raise $500 million apiece to compete–a record sum.”As one might expect, a great deal of first quarter cash was what the National Journal calls “love money”–contributions from candidates’ most fierce friends and supporters. But that is rarely enough. To be truly in the race for the White House, a presidential campaign must appeal to a broader group of voters, and obtain financial and emotional support beyond the candidate’s Christmas card list.Now here’s an open Washington secret, something every political camp knows but no one admits: everyone–from undecided voters to news organizations, political operations, and even rival camps–want to be part of a winning team, and very few people will openly appear to be backing a “loser”. Those in the know will pour over the second-quarter reports to discover who is building momentum and who is not.Many, if not most, voters will make their decision by picking the candidate who seems the least frightening and appears to have the best momentum in the race.While Republicans like to tout themselves as money savers over “free-spending” Democrats, the actual numbers show they’re the ones who have to learn a few things about money management.All three top-tier Republicans are spending money as quickly as they get it. In the first quarter, they flatly failed to properly handle their resources. During the first quarter period, Romney’s campaign spent 55 percent of its campaign funds, Giuliani’s spent 39 percent, and “straight-talk” McCain almost sent his campaign straight the poor house, burning up 64 percent of his campaign funds in the first few months.Simply stated, the liberal Democrats weren’t such free spenders. Clinton’s campaign spent a mere 19 percent of its first-quarter contributions, Obama’s used a reasonable 26 percent, and Edwards’ spent an even more impressive 24 percent. In fact, each of the top five Democratic campaigns  spent less than one-third of its first-quarter funds. Sen. Joseph Biden of Delaware was the only Democrat among the top seven candidates to spend more than one-third of his war chest, burning 56 percent in the first quarter alone.Clinton beat out all others in cash-on-hand in part because she had saved $10 million from her Senate re-election campaign.Of the top nine G.O.P. candidates, only Rep. Ron Paul, (R-TX), and former Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee proved not to be wild spenders, using less than 33 percent of their total funds for the quarter. Six of the nine Republican presidential hopefuls spent over half of their newly raised contributions; only one of the seven top Democrats spent that much.At this relatively early stage in the 2008 White House race, the four most important indications of a candidate’s appeal are the FEC reports, Iowa polls, New Hampshire polls, and national polls. A candidate who isn’t already placing first or second in at least one of those indicators probably doesn’t have much of a chance.First Quarter ReportsDemocratic CandidatesCandidate                   State               Raised                     Spent                  Cash on HandClinton, Hillary             NY                                $36,054,568            $5,079,789          $30,974,779Obama, Barack          IL                                  $25,797,721            $6,605,200          $19,192,520Edwards, John            NC                               $14,031,662            $3,299,781          $10,733,641Dodd, Chris                CT                                 $8,795,706             $1,313,239           $7,482,467Richardson, Bill          NM                                $6,249,354              $1,226,881          $5,022,473Biden, Joe                   DE                                $4,013,089             $1,174,174          $2,838,915Kucinich, Dennis        OH                                $344,891                 $194,217             $163,887Gravel, Mike               AK                                 $15,534                   $18,304               $498Republican CandidatesCandidate                   State               Raised                     Spent                  Cash on HandRomney, Mitt               MA                               $23,434,634            $11,570,981        $11,863,652Giuliani, Rudy              NY                                $16,623,410            $5,688,207          $11,949,734McCain, John             AZ                                 $13,087,559            $8,379,214          $5,180,799Brownback, Sam        KS                                $1,871,057             $1,064,431          $806,626Tancredo, Tom           CO                                $1,256,090             $711,012             $575,078Paul, Ron                     TX                                $639,989                 $115,070             $524,919Huckabee, Mike         AR                                $544,157                 $170,239             $373,918Hunter, Duncan           CA                                $538,524                 $265,971             $272,552Thompson, Tommy     WI                                $391,628                  $252,404             $139,723Gilmore, Jim               VA                                $203,896                 $113,789              $90,107Source: Center For Responsive Politics