Donald Trump loves to claim that the Venezuelan government of Nicolas Maduro is effectively running Tren de Aragua, a gang that was formed in one of that county’s prisons. Trump has used the unproven claim to justify invoking the Alien Enemies Act against Venezuelan immigrants seeking work in the U.S. who – he says – lack proper documentation. The move effectively allows him to deport these individuals without due process.
But there’s a little snag with these bold claims; In April, Trump’s own intelligence experts contradicted his notion that Maduro or other top Venezuelan officials are directing the criminal gang. Thus, his use of this Act is an illogical abuse of power.
An intelligence assessment memo from the National Intelligence Council – a subsidiary of the Office of the Director of National Intelligence, that serves “as a unique bridge between the intelligence and policy communities,” according to its website – makes the matter clear to Trump and other policymakers:
“The Maduro Regime generally … does combat and seek to contain [Tren de Aragua (TDA)], when it fears they could destabilize the regime or when corrupt deals sour.”
“The Maduro Regime probably does not have a policy of cooperating with TDA and is not directing TDA movement to – and operations in – the United States. The IC [Intelligence Community] bases this judgment on Venezuelan law enforcement actions demonstrating the regime treats TDA as a threat; an uneasy mix of cooperation and confrontation … and the decentralized makeup of TDA that would make such a relationship logistically challenging.
“Furthermore, most of the IC judges that intelligence indicating that regime leaders are directing or enabling TDA migration to the United States is not credible and would need [Redacted] reporting [Redacted] corroborated [Redacted].”
“[Redacted] Venezuelan intelligence, military and police services view TDA as a security threat [Redacted], and operate against it in ways that make it highly unlikely the two sides would cooperate in a strategic or consistent way, according to [Redacted] and press reporting [Redacted]. In late January, at least two Venezuelan National Guard units arrested TDA members in Venezuela in separate operations.
“[Redacted] Since at least 2016, Venezuelan Security Forces periodically engaged in armed confrontations with TDA, resulting in the killing of some TDA members, according to [Redacted] press reporting.
“[Redacted] The IC has not observed the regime directing TDA, including to push migrants to the United States, which probably would require extensive [Redacted] coordination, and funding between regime entities and TDA leaders that we would collect.
“[Redacted] The IC also recognizes the regime appreciates migration as a safety valve, allowing discontented Venezuelans to leave. U.S. border encounters of Venezuelan nationals have decreased since January because of migrant perceptions of new U.S. enforcement policies. Since late January, border encounters have plummeted more than 80 percent, according to [Redacted] reaching the lowest level in decades.”
